Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKH76974
Sacoche PC 14 pouces - GENERIC - Sac à bandoulière - Tissu imperméable - Bretelles réglables - Confortable
longtail
3P
BUSINESS
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
453
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 78
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAAKH76974
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 173 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sacoche PC 14 pouces - GENERIC - Sac à bandoulière - Tissu imperméable - Bretelles réglables - Confortable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 455 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (749 days of history, 157 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 55.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 173.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.5K |