Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKG87526
Crème hydratante - NIVEA - SOFT - 200ml - Hypoallergénique - Pour peaux déshydratées
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
1
≈ 0.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAKG87526
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème hydratante - NIVEA - SOFT - 200ml - Hypoallergénique - Pour peaux déshydratées · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (623 days of history, 225 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.03 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |