Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKF66699
Lissage Brésilien - KATIVA - Kératine - ORGANIC ARGAN OIL - Soin Professionnel - Sans Formol
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-80.0%
vs same 4w last year (15 units)
Current stock
186
≈ 87.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAKF66699
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lissage Brésilien - KATIVA - Kératine - ORGANIC ARGAN OIL - Soin Professionnel - Sans Formol · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 186 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (623 days of history, 127 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 21.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.4K |