Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKF66699
Lissage Brésilien - KATIVA - Kératine - ORGANIC ARGAN OIL - Soin Professionnel - Sans Formol
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
AAAKF66699
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lissage Brésilien - KATIVA - Kératine - ORGANIC ARGAN OIL - Soin Professionnel - Sans Formol · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (686 days of history, 91 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 5 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.3K |