Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKF61659
2 Derma Roller System For Face & Body 0.50mm – 540 Aiguilles pour Soin de la Peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+300.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
897
≈ 549.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 22
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAKF61659
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
2 Derma Roller System For Face & Body 0.50mm – 540 Aiguilles pour Soin de la Peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -83.3% · on-hand 897 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (623 days of history, 130 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 44.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 53.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 151.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |