Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJX18541
Mini Bar - Denwa - FR923AA - 46L - 1 porte - Pose libre - Économie d'énergie
longtail
3P
FROID
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 769
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAJX18541
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mini Bar - Denwa - FR923AA - 46L - 1 porte - Pose libre - Économie d'énergie · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (588 days of history, 212 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.29 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 41.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 90.9K |