Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJX18521
AMPOULE LED G45 5,5W B22 BLANC MGS
longtail
1P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
314
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
92
≈ 454.6 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 15 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAJX18521
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AMPOULE LED G45 5,5W B22 BLANC MGS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 92 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (588 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic — next week | — units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |