Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJX18516
Ampoule LED G45 - MGS - 3W - B22 - Jaune - Économie d'énergie
longtail
1P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
622
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-07-07
1P stock
188
≈ 433.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-07-07
Unit price
MAD 7
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-06-27
AAAJX18516
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-29 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ampoule LED G45 - MGS - 3W - B22 - Jaune - Économie d'énergie · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +500.0% · on-hand 188 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (203 days of history, 13 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic — next week | — units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |