Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJX18511
SPOT LED 6,5W GU10 MGS
midtail
1P + 3P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 89.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
206
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
85
≈ 18.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAJX18511
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 126 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SPOT LED 6,5W GU10 MGS · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -89.2% · on-hand 85 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (315 days of history, 208 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 37 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 32.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 712 |