Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJX18511
SPOT LED 6,5W GU10 MGS
midtail
1P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
52
▲ 420.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
92
≈ 16.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 17 sells · latest 2026-05-02
AAAJX18511
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SPOT LED 6,5W GU10 MGS · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 52 units, trending up +420.0% · on-hand 92 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (196 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 52 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | — units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |