Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJT52856
AMPOULE LED C37 FILAMENT 4W E14 MGS
longtail
1P + 3P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▲ 850.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
190
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
71
≈ 239.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 18 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AAAJT52856
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AMPOULE LED C37 FILAMENT 4W E14 MGS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending up +850.0% · on-hand 71 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (700 days of history, 29 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 129.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 983 |