Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJQ51769
Balea Crème déodorante au bicarbonate de soude 50ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▲ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-39.1%
vs same 4w last year (46 units)
Current stock
126
≈ 25.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAJQ51769
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Balea Crème déodorante au bicarbonate de soude 50ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending up +27.3% · on-hand 126 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (644 days of history, 233 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 54.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 147.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.5K |