Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJO98482
Ventilateur PC - CITYTEK - MF109086 - Refroidissement efficace - Silencieux - USB 5V
longtail
1P + 3P
COMPOSANT - PIECE DETACHEE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 8.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 157
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAJO98482
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ventilateur PC - CITYTEK - MF109086 - Refroidissement efficace - Silencieux - USB 5V · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (693 days of history, 42 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.7K |