Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJF16536
Éponge de maquillage - Noname - Mini - Multi usage - Sans latex - Couleurs aléatoires
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 59.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-79.1%
vs same 4w last year (43 units)
Current stock
113
≈ 14.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAJF16536
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 219 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Éponge de maquillage - Noname - Mini - Multi usage - Sans latex - Couleurs aléatoires · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -59.1% · on-hand 113 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (644 days of history, 328 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 22.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 63.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 67.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 219.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |