Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAJF16536
Éponge de maquillage - Noname - Mini - Multi usage - Sans latex - Couleurs aléatoires
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 69.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
48
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAJF16536
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 178 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Éponge de maquillage - Noname - Mini - Multi usage - Sans latex - Couleurs aléatoires · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -69.2% · on-hand 48 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (763 days of history, 332 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 26 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 62.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 178.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |