Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIY53362
CAHIER DE MUSIQUE 21X29.7CM 48 PAGES AUCHAN
longtail
3P
MATERIEL DE JEU
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▲ 1900.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 7
avg of last 16 sells · latest 2026-09-09
AAAIY53362
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 78 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CAHIER DE MUSIQUE 21X29.7CM 48 PAGES AUCHAN · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending up +1900.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (721 days of history, 129 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.24 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 77.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 510 |