Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIV72974
Cahier Spirale Couverture Plastique Rigide -140PAGES
longtail
3P
PAPIER - CAHIER - CARNET
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▲ 23.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
42
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 22 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAIV72974
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 96 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cahier Spirale Couverture Plastique Rigide -140PAGES · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending up +23.1% · on-hand 88 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (476 days of history, 35 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.20 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 96.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |