Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIJ05380
Nivea Creme Boite 60Ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAIJ05380
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Nivea Creme Boite 60Ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (581 days of history, 24 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.47 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 893 |