Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIJ05368
BALLON DE FOOT BA22060B 350G
longtail
1P + 3P
FOOTBALL
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▲ 26.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
111
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
64
≈ 138.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAIJ05368
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 97 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BALLON DE FOOT BA22060B 350G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending up +26.7% · on-hand 64 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (644 days of history, 40 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 97.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.2K |