Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIJ05285
CHIKINET SAC POUBELLE PARFUME 15L 20UNITES
longtail
1P
COLLECTE DES DECHETS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
305
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
18
≈ 31.8 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAIJ05285
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CHIKINET SAC POUBELLE PARFUME 15L 20UNITES · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (581 days of history, 35 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 65.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 934 |