Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIG29188
Catrice - Plumping Lip Liner - 170
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 63.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAIG29188
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Catrice - Plumping Lip Liner - 170 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -63.2% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (574 days of history, 101 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 55.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 114.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |