Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIG29135
Blush - ESSENCE - BLUSH crush! - Rose - Formule douce - Ingrédients végans
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+16.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-28
AAAIG29135
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Blush - ESSENCE - BLUSH crush! - Rose - Formule douce - Ingrédients végans · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +16.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 108 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |