Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIG29088
ESSENCE - CONCEALER I LOVE FLAWLESS SKIN -40 - Haute couvrance - Fini mat - Imperméable
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
18
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAAIG29088
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ESSENCE - CONCEALER I LOVE FLAWLESS SKIN -40 - Haute couvrance - Fini mat - Imperméable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 144 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.0K |