Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAIA06629
ULTRA DOUX – SHAMPOOING TRÉSOR DE MIEL – 200ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
141
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
24
≈ 17.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAAIA06629
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ULTRA DOUX – SHAMPOOING TRÉSOR DE MIEL – 200ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 68 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |