Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHZ39213
Déodorant - REXONA - Men Advanced Protection - 200mL - Invisible Black & White - Sans alcool
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
38
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 5.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AAAHZ39213
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 77 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant - REXONA - Men Advanced Protection - 200mL - Invisible Black & White - Sans alcool · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (399 days of history, 51 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 77.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |