Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHZ24238
Tabrima Hammam en poudre Gommage pour le corps (Camomille, Origan, Basilic, Henné, lavande, Rose) 200g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 69.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
196
≈ 149.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAHZ24238
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tabrima Hammam en poudre Gommage pour le corps (Camomille, Origan, Basilic, Henné, lavande, Rose) 200g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -69.2% · on-hand 196 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 106 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 23.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |