Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHZ21685
Vatika Naturals Huile Capillaire Enrichie en Ail 200ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
18
≈ 11.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAHZ21685
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vatika Naturals Huile Capillaire Enrichie en Ail 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +66.7% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (630 days of history, 130 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 72.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |