Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHZ17004
SAVON DOUX AUX EXTRAITS D ARGAN , 75 G FAYZ
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
26
▲ 2500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
618
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 19 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AAAHZ17004
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 46 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SAVON DOUX AUX EXTRAITS D ARGAN , 75 G FAYZ · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 26 units, trending up +2500.0% · on-hand 787 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (784 days of history, 45 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.75 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 26 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 45.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 170 |