Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHY87538
Crème hydratante - NIVEA - CREME BOITE 150ML - 150ml - Hypoallergénique - Mixte
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
137
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 17 sells · latest 2026-07-02
AAAHY87538
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème hydratante - NIVEA - CREME BOITE 150ML - 150ml - Hypoallergénique - Mixte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 139 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (399 days of history, 15 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.47 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |