Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHY85968
NaturEsoin Solution Alcool 70% 1L
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
12
≈ 14.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 58
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-29
AAAHY85968
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NaturEsoin Solution Alcool 70% 1L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (637 days of history, 60 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |