Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHY55409
Baignoire pliable en silicone pour bébé — Rose — coussin intégré, antidérapante, thermomètre - 62 x 43 x 20.5 cm
longtail
3P
BAIN BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 276
avg of last 29 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAAHY55409
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 44 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baignoire pliable en silicone pour bébé — Rose — coussin intégré, antidérapante, thermomètre - 62 x 43 x 20.5 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (630 days of history, 14 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.43 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 43.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.0K |