Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHY19148
PROTECT PRESERVATIFS NATURE 3 PIECES
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-93.3%
vs same 4w last year (45 units)
Current stock
98
≈ 31.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAHY19148
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 125 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PROTECT PRESERVATIFS NATURE 3 PIECES · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 98 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (686 days of history, 149 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.30 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 125.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 531 |