Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHX83027
Derma Roller - Qualité Supérieure - Multifonctionnel - Anti-perte de cheveux - Acné - Rides
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 90.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-90.9%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
917
≈ 325.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-28
AAAHX83027
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - Qualité Supérieure - Multifonctionnel - Anti-perte de cheveux - Acné - Rides · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -90.9% · on-hand 917 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 151 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.28 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 37.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |