Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHU29226
Bepanthen Onguent 30g
longtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+25.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
1,264
≈ 1013.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAHU29226
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 64 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bepanthen Onguent 30g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 1264 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.21 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |