Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHU28933
TRITOSPOT Crème Eclaircissante 15g
midtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
35
▼ 36.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+6.1%
vs same 4w last year (33 units)
Current stock
65
≈ 13.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAHU28933
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 217 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TRITOSPOT Crème Eclaircissante 15g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 35 units, trending down -36.4% · on-hand 65 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (623 days of history, 325 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 35 units · prev 4w = 55 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 10.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 35.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 77.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 21.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 84.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 217.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |