Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAHU28933
TRITOSPOT Crème Eclaircissante 15g
midtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 68.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAHU28933
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 392 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TRITOSPOT Crème Eclaircissante 15g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -68.6% · on-hand 43 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (679 days of history, 401 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 51 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 8.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 34.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 159.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 70.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 391.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.5K |