Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAGP17400
Blush - MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - SUNKISSER BLUSH 12 - Couleur Marron - Effet Éclatant - Longue Tenue 12h
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
18
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
2
≈ 5.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 80
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAAGP17400
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Blush - MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - SUNKISSER BLUSH 12 - Couleur Marron - Effet Éclatant - Longue Tenue 12h · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (749 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |