Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAGP17399
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - SUNKISSER BLUSH 01 DOWNTOWN RUSH
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
10
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 2.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 88
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAGP17399
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK - SUNKISSER BLUSH 01 DOWNTOWN RUSH · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 5 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 22.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.4K |