Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAGI86078
Sérum Correcteur de Taches Sombres - AXIS-Y - 50ml - Niacinamide - Argousier - Sans Parabène
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-94.1%
vs same 4w last year (34 units)
Current stock
27
≈ 8.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 190
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
AAAGI86078
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 117 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Correcteur de Taches Sombres - AXIS-Y - 50ml - Niacinamide - Argousier - Sans Parabène · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (721 days of history, 119 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.3K |