Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAGI45096
STYLO BLANCO 7 ML BLISTER FABER-CASTELL
longtail
3P
ECRITURE - CALLIGRAPHIE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
35
≈ 38.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-03-30
AAAGI45096
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
STYLO BLANCO 7 ML BLISTER FABER-CASTELL · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 35 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (707 days of history, 36 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 23.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |