Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAGH54740
Crème Écran Solaire Invisible SPF 50 - 50ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
367
Σ Stock across 17 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 76
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAGH54740
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Écran Solaire Invisible SPF 50 - 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 367 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (476 days of history, 61 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 19.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 61.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |