Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAFZ27149
Bâton de cire coiffante - Balea - Hair Wax Stick - 25g - Vegan - Fixation rapide - Sans microplastiques
midtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-75.0%
vs same 4w last year (16 units)
Current stock
27
≈ 7.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 63
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAFZ27149
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 122 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bâton de cire coiffante - Balea - Hair Wax Stick - 25g - Vegan - Fixation rapide - Sans microplastiques · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (721 days of history, 147 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 122.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.7K |