Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAFT25645
L'Oréal Paris L'oréal Paris - Hyaluron Expert Soin Repulpant Hydratant - Jour Spf 20 - 50 Ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 90.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
48
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
15
≈ 21.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 81
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-22
AAAFT25645
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris L'oréal Paris - Hyaluron Expert Soin Repulpant Hydratant - Jour Spf 20 - 50 Ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -90.0% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 22 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |