Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAFS77678
ARROSOIR 3L
longtail
3P
MATERIEL D'ENTRETIEN
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▲ 233.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 70
avg of last 8 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAFS77678
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ARROSOIR 3L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending up +233.3% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (728 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.50 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 145.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.2K |