Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEV48995
1 SACHET DE 2 PILES R6 SUPERLUX
longtail
3P
PILES
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 36.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+36.4%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
127
≈ 54.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 2
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAEV48995
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
1 SACHET DE 2 PILES R6 SUPERLUX · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +36.4% · on-hand 127 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (609 days of history, 141 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.15 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 6.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 52.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 15.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 57.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 290 |