Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEU36863
BOX A 2 COMPARTIMENTS HOBBYLIFE
longtail
1P + 3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
293
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
55
≈ 25.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 6
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAEU36863
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 178 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOX A 2 COMPARTIMENTS HOBBYLIFE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 58 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (273 days of history, 88 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 71.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 177.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |