Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAET53515
Lotion pour le Corps - Lactovit - Lactourea - 250ml - Ultra Hydratante - Peaux Sèches
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-86.8%
vs same 4w last year (38 units)
Current stock
6
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAET53515
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 111 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lotion pour le Corps - Lactovit - Lactourea - 250ml - Ultra Hydratante - Peaux Sèches · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (735 days of history, 201 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 111.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |