Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAET48825
Lactovit Lotion Réparatrice pour le Corps Lactourea 400ml
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 75.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-67.4%
vs same 4w last year (43 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 2.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 51
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAET48825
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 319 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lactovit Lotion Réparatrice pour le Corps Lactourea 400ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -75.9% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (735 days of history, 504 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 58 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 15.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 50.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 127.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 25.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 109.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 318.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.2K |