Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAES99617
FAYZ, SAVON MAIN NOIX DE COCO, FLACON PLASTIQUE 5
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 800.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
92
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
5
≈ 26.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 15 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AAAES99617
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 101 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
FAYZ, SAVON MAIN NOIX DE COCO, FLACON PLASTIQUE 5 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +800.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (784 days of history, 20 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 100.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 805 |