Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEM68535
ACCUMULATEUR DE FROID 400 G
hero
3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
99
▼ 45.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAEM68535
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 559 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ACCUMULATEUR DE FROID 400 G · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 99 units, trending down -45.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (777 days of history, 410 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.84 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 99 units · prev 4w = 182 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 22.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 85.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 257.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 30.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 137.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 559.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 12.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.2K |