Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEL82806
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
25
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
182
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
43
≈ 14.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAEL82806
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 206 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 25 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 43 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 230 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 25 units · prev 4w = 30 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 75.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 206.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.7K |