Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEL82806
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
27
▲ 8.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
73
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
19
≈ 7.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAEL82806
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 27 units, trending up +8.0% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (735 days of history, 182 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 27 units · prev 4w = 25 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 27.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 79.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 147.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |