Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAEL82806
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS
longtail
1P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 43.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+85.7%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
80
≈ 37.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AAAEL82806
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 98 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ORALEX PORTE SOIE DENTAIRE DOUBLE FILS 50 PCS · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -43.5% · on-hand 80 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 142 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 98.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |