Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADW75685
Kemei Professional – Tondeuse Sensitive pour Peau Délicate KM-1838
longtail
3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▼ 44.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
37
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 165
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAADW75685
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 159 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kemei Professional – Tondeuse Sensitive pour Peau Délicate KM-1838 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending down -44.1% · on-hand 38 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 233 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 25.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 84.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 41.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 159.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 26.2K |