Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADW75685
Kemei Professional – Tondeuse Sensitive pour Peau Délicate KM-1838
longtail
3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
97
≈ 50.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 156
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAADW75685
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 158 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kemei Professional – Tondeuse Sensitive pour Peau Délicate KM-1838 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -11.1% · on-hand 97 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 176 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 51.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 157.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.6K |