Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADP21431
Sérum solaire - SKIN1004 - Madagascar Centella Hyalu-Cica - SPF 50+ - Waterproof - 50 ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-85.7%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 215
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAADP21431
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 67 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum solaire - SKIN1004 - Madagascar Centella Hyalu-Cica - SPF 50+ - Waterproof - 50 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (756 days of history, 61 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.4K |