Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAADF80539
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs 3 plis - 70 unités - Selpak - Couleur Aléatoire
longtail
1P + 3P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
114
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
20
≈ 291.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-11-03
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 5 sells · latest 2026-10-16
AAADF80539
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-26 · Total forecast: 30 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte de mouchoirs blancs 3 plis - 70 unités - Selpak - Couleur Aléatoire · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (707 days of history, 3 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.55 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 29.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 303 |